Where's the bottom of real estate market?

A press release that accompanied the National Association of Realtors' September report on home sales and prices suggested that the somewhat lower number of home sales and reduced inventory of homes indicate the market has bottomed out.
"It appears we have passed a cyclical peak in terms of the number of homes on the market," said association president Thomas M. Stevens. "The good news is that fewer new listings are coming online. A stable sales pace is expected to draw down the number of listings to a supply balance that will support positive price growth within a few months."
Wishful thinking? Probably, at least in New Jersey. I haven't seen any sign of a strengthening market in my neighborhood or anywhere else at the Shore. Housing inventories are still high, and buyers, fully conscious that it's a buyers' market, continue fishing for desperate homesellers willing to bite on their insulting low-ball offers.
Seemingly contradicting the NAR's somewhat rosy scenario, housing reports last week indicated that new home sale prices in September registered their steepest decline in 36 years. The volume of resales fell for the sixth straight month and resale prices had back-to-back monthly declines for the first time since 1990.
Real estate markets vary greatly from one region to the next, of course. But I don't think things have bottomed out at the Shore.